Asset pricing and energy consumption risk

This paper proposes energy consumption in the US as a new measure for the consumption capital asset pricing model. We find that (i) industrial energy growth produces reasonable values for the relative risk aversion coefficient and the implied risk-free rate; (ii) compared to alternative consumption measures, industrial energy performs well in explaining the cross-sectional variation in stock returns with the lowest implied risk aversion and pricing errors; (iii) the industrial energy consumption risk model performs equally well as the Fama–French three-factor model in the cross-sectional asset pricing tests; and (iv) total energy consumption risk is priced in the presence of the Fama–French factor risks.     

自然资源资产管理：理论逻辑与改革导向

研究目的:针对自然资源资产管理的理论诠释不清、改革导向不明、自然资源的资产属性尚未充分体现等问题,本文立足新时代党和国家机构改革背景,分析自然资源资产管理的理论逻辑,明确未来自然资源资产管理的改革方向。研究方法:文献研究法,综合分析法。研究结果:新时代自然资源资产管理应当基于"权利—价值—经营—管理"的理论逻辑体系框架,其中自然资源资产权利应当包含自然资源资产所有权、资格权、使用权和管理权等对象内涵,以完整、明晰和稳定作为权利实现要求;自然资源资产价值显化应当基于生态、经济等价值的全面认知,针对不同资产类型分类采用不同价值评估方法,完善市场培育、价值调节和公平分配机制;自然资源资产经营既要保障粮食安全、生态安全和规避可能风险,又要实现高品质利用,因而应当以底量保安全,以存量、数量、质量、差量和流量保协同,优化完善编制资产负债表;自然资源资产管理则应当打破自然资源资产管理割裂的现状,实现系统统一管理并建立全平台、全过程、全资源和全空间的综合监督机制。研究结论:自然资源资产管理应以"三维立体多权化"、"生态价值具象化"、"安全品质六量化"和"系统监管综合化"为改革导向,以期全面推进未来多维、绿色、高效、安全、品质、有序的自然资源资产管理方式的切实实现。     

Optimal granularity for portfolio choice

Many optimization-based portfolio rules fail to beat the simple 1/N rule out-of-sample because of parameter uncertainty. In this paper we suggest a grouping strategy in which we first form groups of equally weighted stocks and then optimize over the resulting groups only. This strategy aims at balancing the trade-off between the benefits from optimization and the losses from estimation risk. We rely on Monte-Carlo simulations to illustrate the performance of the strategy, and we derive the optimal group size for a simplified setup. Furthermore, we show that estimation risk also has an impact via the criterion by which the assets are sorted into groups (like the expected excess returns or betas), but does not negate the grouping approach. We relate our work to linear asset pricing models, and we conduct out of sample back-tests in order to confirm the validity of our grouping strategy empirically.     

Localism and the Big Society: the asset transfer of leisure centres and libraries – fighting closures or empowering communities?

This paper critically examines the ‘asset transfer’ of leisure services from the public to the voluntary sector. Asset transfer might be theorised as ‘austerity localism’, in which volunteers are obliged to fill the gaps left by retreating public provision, or as ‘progressive localism’, which represents new opportunities through the localism and Big Society agendas to develop more locally responsive, cooperative and mutualist visions. In this way, asset transfer might overcome the limitations of the United Kingdom policies in which ‘Big Government’ is replaced by civic society. Drawing on qualitative interviews with key personnel (volunteers, managers and local authority officers) at 12 leisure facilities, a grounded assessment of the nuanced balance between ‘austerity localism’ and ‘progressive localism’ is provided, including three observations. First, the main impetus for transfer was cuts in local authority budgets which stimulated the emergence of local groups of volunteers. Secondly, the transfers themselves required interaction between local government and the volunteer groups; however, the nature of the relationship and support given varied and support was limited by austerity measures. Thirdly, volunteers do not automatically fill a gap left by the state: without support transfer viability relies on the financial and social capital among volunteer groups, and this is unevenly distributed. These findings suggest that the capacity for a ‘progressive localism’ to emerge through asset transfer is limited. However, where transfer has occurred, there are some progressive benefits of volunteer empowerment and a more flexible service.     

现代资产定价理论的研究和发展——基于有效市场假说和资产定价模型的视角

围绕对有效市场假说的联合检验假设难题、资本资产定价模型的检验、“贝塔通缉令”“因子动物园”“多因素模型大战”等重点和核心话题,对现代资产定价理论文献的研究脉络进行梳理和评述,在此基础上对未来资产定价的研究重点和方向提出建议。     

Consumption,asset wealth,equity premium,term spread,and flight to quality

We link transitory deviations of consumption from its equilibrium relationship with aggregate wealth and labor income to equity returns on the one hand, and to two characteristics of bond investors—the premium demanded to hold long‐term assets, and “flight to quality” behavior—on the other hand. Using a panel of 10 euro area countries over the period 1984Q1–2017Q4, we show that a rise in the consumption–wealth ratio predicts both higher equity returns and the future term spread, while a fall in the consumption–wealth ratio explains a large fraction of the rise in the spread between the “risky” and the “safe‐haven” bond.     

Money,Asset Prices,and the Liquidity Premium

This paper examines the effect of monetary policy on the market value of the liquidity services that financial assets provide, known as the liquidity premium. The theory predicts that money supply and nominal interest rates have positive effects on the liquidity premium, but asset supply has a negative effect. The empirical analysis with U.S. data confirms the theoretical predictions. The theory also proposes that the liquidity properties of assets can cause negative nominal yields when the money holding cost is low and liquid assets are scarce. The suggestive empirical findings in Switzerland to support this theoretical result are presented.